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Borderline

A.I. Is Not A Bubble
Bubble              Bubble?
    Bubble     Bubble?
             Bubble
             Bubble?
  ○   o  O
      °   o   
  o       o     ○   o  O
      °   o  ○   o  O
      °   o
  o   
Borderline crosses the 1 Billion streams threshold after I started promoting this post. (No it wasn’t all because of me 🤣)

We’re on the borderline
Dangerously fine and unforgiving
Possibly a sign
I’m gonna have the strangest night on Sunday

-Tame Impala

November 19

In 1999, I accepted a job at AT&T, led by the dot-com bubble’s Chief Expansionist, this guy:

Former Chief Tries to Redeem The Calls He Made at AT&T - WSJ
Final Boss: he sometimes rode a Harley-Davidson to work.
AT&T Meets Analysts, Boosts Goals For Revenue, but Stock Doesn't React - WSJ
The pillion passenger

The Storyteller. Per the WSJ he “notably changed formerly negative views on AT&T, upgrading the company allegedly to help win lucrative banking fees for Citigroup and in turn curry favor with former Citigroup CEO Sanford Weill, who helped Mr. Grubman get his children into a posh nursery school on Manhattan’s Upper East Side.” Subsequently banned for life from the securities industry.

What do you get when you combine a Big Spender with a Short-order Cook?

Lots of expensive things that don’t necessarily go together.

I was tied for lowest ranking man person on the Totem Pole for the Investor Relations Team that ran one of the most efficiently priced IPOs in history.

Fiber in the cloud is not the same as fiber in the ground.

In 1999, AT&T acquired TCI (Tele-Communications Inc.) for ~$48 billion, TCG (Teleport Communications Group) for $11.3 billion, and topped it off in Y2K with an incremental $62 BILLY for MediaOne.

$100 Billion + 🤦🏻‍♀️

The ambition was to become the dominant broadband and cable player, integrating content and “last mile” access. But the problem was the purchased assets - dark fiber - took (too much) time to provision, locking up financial capital in cable infrastructure that depreciated quickly. New technology emerged and left the company behind - to a degree. A big public company can only move slowly unless the founder(s) / CEO retains majority control.

Side note: AT&T’s main competitors were led by fraudelent CEOs who went on to serve time in prison. Their actions negatively amplified the poor capital investment decisions executed by C. Michael . The insider economics of this period in Corporate America led to Regulation FD a seminal change in how numbers are reported to The Street.

Pretty Baller as far as I’m concerned

Epilogue: AT&T was saved by this guy 👇🏽, one of the most accomplished corporate CFOs in history. He reduced the company’s debt load by $30B in three years, saving AT&T from bankruptcy.

charles noski
The Clean Up Crew

My claim to fame is asking Mr. Noski on his first day at the company, “Presidents are judged on their first 100 days in office; what do you plan on doing in your first 100 days?”. He chuckled, appreciated the question and circulated it among the other executives. I was “T famous” for a few hours. I can’t remember what he said, but he went on to save the company.


Today’s “A.I. Bubble” Is Not Like Us 1999

Have a look at the 10 concepts below …

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