It Could Be Nice

Bitcoin: look at that orange goat - it’s the point of this post. data source

The above chart details the volume-weighted-cost-basis of bitcoin purchased in the years: 2015, 2020 and 2025.

As of 3 August 2025, bitcoin is hovering at $113,000 and almost everyone who has bought into it since 2009 is in profit.

Let that sink in.

Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2015.

Today that investment would be worth ~$633,000

Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2020.

Today that investment would be worth ~$299,000

Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin in 2025.

Today that investment would be worth ~$113,000

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Huh?

When coins bought in 2015 are spent (sold or moved) in later years at much higher prices, the cost basis for the “2015 cohort” is recalculated upward; potentially far above the historical prices of 2015.

Essentially, the cost basis for each coin becomes the last price it moved at, no matter when that occurs …

• Let’s say someone bought Bitcoin in 2015 at $400. They held it until 2021, then moved or sold it when the price reached $50,000. The on-chain accounting assigns that $50,000 price as the “cost basis” for that particular unit of Bitcoin; retroactively updating the 2015 cohort’s cost basis.

If many people who bought in 2015 only moved or sold their coins in a much later, higher-priced bull market, the average cost basis for the “2015 supply” surges, despite the 2015 market price being orders of magnitude lower.

Important Concepts:

• The yearly cost basis is a rolling, dynamic metric. It’s not a simple average or a static figure from that specific calendar year.

• It is a function of when and at what price the coins last moved. As older coins are spent at new, higher prices, the earlier year’s cost basis metric “re-rates” to modern price levels.

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_checkonchain uses these “cost basis by vintage” charts to illustrate the long-term behavior of different investor cohorts and to show at what prices historical holders are actually exiting, rather than the prices they entered.

So what about that orange goat?

On November 9, 2022 during the FTX-induced bear market, bitcoin briefly dipped to $15,758 - which is lower than than the 2015 volume weighted cost basis of $17,785.

Let’s assume someone bought $100,000 worth of bitcoin on 9 Nov. 22

Today that investment would be worth ~$714,000 even outperforming the typical investor from 2015.

The morals of this story

1. You are not too late → the typical investor in 2025 is up 13% - not too shabby.

2. Some long-term investors who bought bitcoin in November 2022 outperformed the typical 2015 investor.

3. Time in the market outperforms timing the market over the long-run.

Charts are from

_checkonchain